WebJul 31, 2024 · INFER, a forecasting program funded by a grant from Open Philanthropy to generate valuable signals for U.S. Government policymakers, is hosting an … WebFeb 3, 2024 · Forecasting tournaments are level-playing-field competitions that reveal which individuals, teams, or algorithms generate more accurate probability estimates on which topics. This article describes a… Expand 66 PDF Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions B. Mellers, Eric …
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WebDec 16, 2024 · The four-year tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community beginning in 2010 provided a great deal of data about good forecasting traits, and it also served as a credentialing function by anointing the top two percent of competitors as “superforecasters” and by establishing a performance metric: the Brier score, named … WebThe tournaments solicited roughly 28,000 predictions about the future and found the forecasters were often only slightly more accurate than chance, and usually worse than … shop nation drill press table
Forecasting Tournaments: Tools for Increasing Transparency a…
WebFeb 3, 2024 · A tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed ways in which forecasters can better use probability estimates to make predictions—even for … WebForecasting challenge sponsors — including, among others, The Economist, #1 Bestselling Author Adam Grant, and the Harvard Kennedy School — invite you to anticipate the … The Good Judgment Crowd Forecasting Site at www.gjopen.com (the "Site") and … Take part in The World Ahead forecasting chall... Closing. Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM … Tip: Mention someone by typing @username. Publish Anonymously Cancel At close of business on 26 July 2024, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's … As of 15 October 2024, 34 seats in the US Senate were up for election in 2024, … For featured content about Superforecasting®, please visit … Tip: Mention someone by typing @username. Publish Anonymously Cancel WebApr 14, 2024 · Since the launch of the website in April 2024, more than 10,000 forecasts have been made by 1,300 forecasters, drawn from across 41 government departments and several allied countries. The site has around 200 regular forecasters monthly, who must draw only on publicly available information to tackle 30-40 questions live at any time. shop nars sheer glow foundation